Rolling Over, Rocking Forward

THE WEEK

All week the Market felt like it was rolling over.  We had hit a new 52-week 2 weeks ago and kept butting up against it over and over.  This past week the price started to roll over and go down.  On Friday before the Market opened, the PCE economic report was released.   Traders reacted by buying in.  Then most of the day the price slipped down and I told myself to be cautious trading.  But the buyers stepped in at the end of the trading day and pushed prices up hard.  It was the last day of May and I believe a lot of traders and big money concerns were doing month end adjustments to their portfolios.  The chart below is the S&P 500.

LOOKING AHEAD

I think it will be a rocky week for traders.  We have several major economic releases by the government beginning with the Manufacturing PMI for May on Monday.  On Wednesday the Services PMI for May is released; Friday the May Unemployment figures come out.  If any of these reports come in too hot, it will cause traders to sell off and the Market to go down.  It will not take much.  You can see how nervous the trading community was fast week on the VIX.  Not the large candles and the gaps day to day.

HOW AM I DOING?

I had a profitable week even though I didn’t trade much.  I am being very selective with my trades choosing to only trade positions I feel totally confident about.  It is hard to find those kinds of trades right now.  I got an email from a long time Investing Buddies asking why I was trading some positions that violated my basic trading rules.  He was right.  I had started experimenting with some new trades that caused losses.  I now have to decide what to do moving forward:  Stick basic rules I made for myself years ago or keep experimenting looking for new ways to trade the same old thing.

The subject of this coming Thursday’s Webinar is

BACK TO THE BASICS

I will be re-examining rules that gave me GREAT trading gains