The Uncertainty of the Stock Market in Q1 of 2023

THE WEEK

The Market ended on a high note this week.  In part it was due to the Jobs Report coming in hotter than expected.  After  examining the report, I did notice wage growth is showing signs of cooling down.  If inflation raises its ugly head even more that means peoples’ spendable dollars will be even less keeping the vicious inflation cycle intact.  Not what the Market ultimately wants to see.

I saw where one guru said the Market was in a rally.  To give him some credit – 

•  I did see some money flow into the Market 
•  And the 50-day Moving Average trend above the 100-day average

But when I look at the Price/Action and there is no way I would call it a market rally.  One up day does not a Rally make.  I think he was drinking some strange KoolAid.

LOOKING AHEAD

In this week’s webinar I took a step into the unknown and predicted what I saw coming up through the rest of January and the first two weeks of February.  Here’s what I see around the bend:

January – A Month of Uncertainty

•  The trading herd is still quite nervous, jumping in and out of trades quickly
•  A lot of retail traders have stepped out of the Market waiting for better times
•  As earnings season ramps up and companies show decent results, traders will be stepping back into trades
•  The supply chain is much better although not at 100% 
•  There are jobs available and many companies are desperate to find talented workers
•  Inflation is still rearing its ugly head but people are experiencing a certain numbness to all the bad news

A Month of Uncertainty

But Hope is Starting to Peek Out

HOW AM I DOING?

It was a good week.  I only have a few trades on as I wait for the earnings season to begin.  We also have another major economic report (CPI) on Thursday this coming week.  Lately those reports have rocked the Market hard both up and down.  I just want to let the dust settle before jumping in with new trades.

DATA (double account trading adventure) starts on Thursday, January 12th.  I hope you all join me as I attempt to double the balance in my trading account over a 10-week period.  When you choose to participant in DATA, you get to trade live right beside me every Market Day.  Fun!